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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."