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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.